Ownership of cars is falling amongst those who live in the cities - not just in Australia, but worldwide in the EU, USA and other "developed" countries:
From
the Australian:
In the City of Melbourne, 76 per cent of households (mostly apartments and terraces) report having no car. In the Sydney CBD including Haymarket and The Rocks the no-car community comprises 57 per cent of all households. In the Adelaide CBD this proportion is 40 per cent while in central Brisbane it is 35 per cent.
Whilst in the USA they're seeing that some age groups are less likely to own a car than their parents or grandparents at the same age
https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/demographic-shifts-shaping-future-car-ownership/So what does that mean? I use my brother here as an example. He's 35, and has only owned a car since he was 33. Prior to that he's never needed to own a car living in either London or Melbourne. In contrast, I'm 39 and I've owned or leased a car since I was 21. 4 years age difference, different places lived in (I've never lived in a big city since I was at uni for my undergraduate degree) and I think that's part of the approach to car ownership now. He wanted to go somewhere? He hired a car, or he'd fly there and then hire a car, or, in the UK, he'd get the train and then get picked up.
We've going to have an increasing urbanisation of the population - Outside of the Greater Capital City Statistical Areas there only lives 32.99% (2016) of the population (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2018) and that area is 99.28% of Australia’s land mass - and therefore, they don't need their own cars as much if there are viable substitute modes of transport (train, share cars or bikes, buses, trams, light rail, ride sharing) that mean they don't need to incur the cost of their own vehicle.
If they can get the
induction charging to work (which is getting close) imagine being able to pick up a share car (GoGet or similar) that is parked over a charging pad, drive it to where you need to get to, park it on the nearest induction pad and off you go. Something like
this is already happening with some transport options like taxis. That'll solve most city driving requirements as the normal city distance is under 50km IIRC - the power used to cover that in terms of CO2 generation in an EV will be a fraction of what it would be in an IC vehicle, especially given the gridlock that most capital city roads are.
On the other hand, and I seem to keep saying this, I think that agricultural applications will also go to EVs - they have the benefit of huge amount of torque (why are so many trains diesel electric? why are the big mine dump trucks diesel electric?_ that can be applied directly to the wheel that needs it with individual motors. They also have the space for solar set ups. Now imagine a drop in and drop out battery pack in the autonomous ag machine (hey, most tractors now have the gear to get to at least to Level 3, nearly level 4 of the SAE Autonomous vehicle grades and some mine trucks are running at Level 5)
So what does that mean for us?
Well, for me, probably SFA. I live in regional NSW, we don't have the mature car sharing options, we don't even have Uber (and it's nearly 40,000 population LGA). Nor do we have any charging stations in town... but come school holidays, we do get plenty of Teslas in town, so they obviously charge up somewhere.
Now, if a Tesla has a range of 450km (give or take - that's approaching maximum range), realistically that's about 5hrs driving. Driving safely, you'd have had a break after 2 to 3hrs for a feed and you might have been able to lob 30-45mins charge in then, so you're then good for perhaps a total of 650km... so all of a sudden that 30minute break is extending your range by 400km each time.
OK, it'll change how you camp, so that might be a bit of a culture shock for some people... I'm sure there'll be solutions worked out by National Sparks and Wildfires at some of their visitor locations (Dorrigo springs to mind, as does the QLD NP around Giraween and the Pyramid rocks).
In response to the comment of how are we going to have enough electricity for everyone? Well, all we need to do is use less of it to begin with, and perhaps be more selective in how we use it.
- Does your house have aircon?
- If your house was designed differently would it be possible to do away with aircon? WA are starting to wise up on it (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-16/the-hidden-costs-of-mcmansions/10981336)
- Do you have LED lighting in the house? NSW have a big drive on to help businesses reduce their energy usage by changing to more efficient technologies
- Do you shop on the street or in a shopping centre? If you shop in a shopping centre (Westfields etc) are you shopping in somewhere that is trying to keep cool a giant (normally grey or black) box with loads of electric lights in it, and no natural lighting? In comparison, a traditional streetscape could operate with much less light and no air conditioning for the communal area as it's open air.
Just some bits to think about...
Lastly, manufacturers will change to ensure their survivability. I remember talking to someone who said 10 years ago their typical customer was a 50 year old who enjoyed activity
x; now their typical customer is a 60 year old who enjoys activity
x... ie it hasn't changed, and in another 20 years will have died off... leaving them no customer... They're looking at diversifying to ensure they remain competitive and in existence.
